54, 32, and 12: An Addendum

very stable genius

This is a follow-up on my post titled 54, 32, and 12.

It has been urged that it would be wrong to claim or imply that all 54 percent of voters who declare that they “definitely will not vote for Trump” will vote for  the Democratic candidate, whoever she may be. The point is correct. It’s logical. You can “not vote for Trump” by staying home on election day. Or by voting for a third party candidate, as so many did back in 2016. The point is also consistent with the available data, which show the percentage voting Democratic against Trump varying rather considerable from one potential nominee to another.

All of this means we should be sure to pick the best nominee. (And, if the person you think would be the best nominee is about to be voted off the island, it’s time to send in your $5 or $10 contribution. I just contributed $10 to three of ‘em, as my way of voting to keep them on the stage at least a while longer.)

Fine. So noted.

But the gravamen of my 54, 32, and 12 post was to call attention to data showing that the anti-Trump sentiment of just over half of our population is strong, baked in, and intractable, while Trump’s support among his base is squishy.

Some 32 percent of American voters would, as he says, vote for him if he killed someone on Fifth Avenue. But the remainder of his 42-44 percent “supporters” say they would consider voting for someone else. The someone else could be the Democratic nominee. Or maybe they might stay home. Or maybe they might exercise their franchise for the Libertarian candidate, which would be just fine and dandy. But they’re squishy.

And so, it follows that the Very Stable Genius is correct in intuiting that his base is soft, and he had bloody well juice it up if he is to have an ice cube’s chance in hell.

But, having accurately taken the first step in the analysis, he blunders when thinking of a method that will stabilize the base.

Trying to lock in the squishy 12 percent by ramping up the racism is like returning home, seeing that your house is on fire, and trying to solve the problem by dousing the fire with gasoline.