Not Roosevelt, Not Reagan, But Late Elvis

First off, if you want to know how American politics stands as of the morning of June 15, 2020, then watch the clips. If the topic does not interest you, then feel free to go back to the sudoku game.

Secondly, I would like to say that I am grateful beyond measure that the arc of the universe seems to be bending a little more toward justice—that many more of us melanin-deprived Americans are waking up to racial injustice. I am glad that we have to wear hard hats to dodge the Confederate monuments toppling around us. To use language common among us heretics, I give praise to the Spirit of Life, and I am grateful that I have lived to see the day.

But does the racial awakening have much, if anything, to do with the state of Trump’s popularity and electability? I doubt it very, very seriously.

Every day, in every way, Trump has decided to lie, gaslight, and spin his way out of the pandemic. And worse, much worse, every day, in every way, he has encourage his peeps to defy public health advice and to place their lives in imminent danger to show their loyalty to the Cult of Trump.

Some of the base have bought the gaslighting, and many have not. The mask wearers are being separated by a higher and higher wall from the death defiers.

The mask wearers may have had trouble understanding what Ukrainegate was all about. They may have found the Muller Report too hard to read. But they have figured out that they don’t want to die.

The consequences? With 270 electoral votes needed to win, Trump currently leads in states with 142 votes, Biden currently leads in states with 307 votes, and states with 89 votes are considered tossups. And new polling shows Trump sinking like a stone in six key “battleground states.” See Philip Bump, A massive shift away from Trump in six key states indicates serious trouble for his reelection bid.

And what is Trump’s plan to turn this all around? As Morning Joe observed, his plan is to give ‘em a show.

He’s not Roosevelt. He’s not Reagan. He’s Late Elvis.

Up, Up, and Away!

It was May 14 when we last looked at fivethirtyeight.com’s weighted poll of polls. On that day, Trump disapprovers outnumbered approvers by 8.4 points.

As of today, the comparable number is 10.5 points. That’s apples to apples, looking at the data set for “all polls.”

When we look today at the narrower, and perhaps more accurate, weighted average of polls limited to “likely or registered voters,” the number in 10.6 points.

Orange Man is twisting slowly, slowly in the wind.