Do Not Read This Post on a Full Stomach

con man

If you want to feel really bad, check out someone named David Byler, a “data analyst and political columnist” who analyzes the data and columnizes his findings—to make a strong case that Trump has a 50-50 chance of reelection.*

I call your attention to Mr. Byler’s views in the interest of intellectual honesty, and deeply regret the angst you are now feeling.

To mitigate some of your pain, I direct you to Greg Sargent’s piece of around tennish this morning: Trump’s emerging reelection strategy: Double down on failure and lies. Among other things, Sargent explicitly answers Byler, and has some very good points to make. He sums up this way:

In short, Trump’s economic nationalist agenda has proved to be both a failure and a fraud. This is the prism through which swing voters will likely judge his promise of four more years of the same. Yet Trump appears certain that for those voters, he can make 2020 all about the Democrats’ alleged “socialism,” and not about his own disastrous presidency.

It has been observed that the lies are coming faster and faster, and that they are more and more blatant. For example, we learn this morning that Trump says ‘fake news’ pushed story that he called Apple CEO Tim Cook ‘Tim Apple’, when he was seen on TV doing that very thing.

Some continue to see this behavior as evidence of serious mental instability. But I have come around to the view that serious mental incapacity is the more precise explanation. Trump lacks the mental ability to construct a logical policy argument, or anything that bears a family resemblance to a logical policy argument.

I feel his pain. I, for example, lack the mental ability to draw a decent portrait or a landscape. If my job description required drawing landscapes and portraits, I would be very bad at my job.

Like the doomed cobra who keeps on trying to poison the mongoose, Trump strikes out with fear and lies because that is the only thing he is mentally capable of doing. But the mongoose has evolved an immune system that the cobra can’t harm. A bare majority of Americans appear to have evolved an immure system impervious to Trump’s lies and fear mongering.

At least that is what we may reasonably, but cautiously, hope.

* All such conversations assume arguendo that his current legal position will be roughly the same in November, 2020, as it is right now in March, 2019. In other words, that he won’t be wearing a prison jumpsuit.