A New Poll

 

Yesterday, the respectedQuinnipiac Poll took another whack at the piñata. Here is how they describe some of their key findings:

Among all registered voters, Democratic candidates lead President Trump in general election matchups by between 4 and 9 percentage points, with Bloomberg claiming the biggest numerical lead against Trump:

    • Bloomberg tops Trump 51 – 42 percent;
    • Sanders defeats Trump 51 – 43 percent;
    • Biden beats Trump 50 – 43 percent;
    • Klobuchar defeats Trump 49 – 43 percent;
    • Warren wins narrowly over Trump 48 – 44 percent;
    • Buttigieg is also slightly ahead of Trump 47 – 43 percent.

President Trump’s favorability rating is underwater, as 42 percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 55 percent have an unfavorable view of him. However, it is his best favorability rating since a March 7 , 2017 poll, when his favorability rating was a negative 43 – 53 percent.

Like President Trump, the top four Democratic candidates in the primary are viewed more unfavorably than favorably. Warren has the worst net score (favorable minus unfavorable) among all registered voters, with Biden close behind. Biden’s favorability numbers have been declining over the last year since his positive 53 – 33 percent favorability rating in a December 19 , 2018 poll. In today’s poll:

    • Warren gets a negative 39 – 47 percent favorability rating;
    • Biden gets a negative 43 – 50 percent;
    • Bloomberg gets a negative 34 – 40 percent, with 25 percent who haven’t heard enough about him;
    • Sanders gets a negative 44 – 49 percent;
    • Buttigieg gets a positive 36 – 32 percent, and 31 percent haven’t heard enough about him;
    • Klobuchar gets a positive 32 – 22 percent, with 44 percent who haven’t heard enough about her.

So, that means any Democratic candidate could beat Trump?

That’s what simplistic and misleading headlines are likely to say. The literal answer to the question is yes, they all get more actual votes than Trump, as, by the way, did Hillary Clinton. In fact, however, the margin of the popular vote victory is what will make the difference in the Electoral College.

Isn’t it very odd that Sanders and Bloomberg, who are so different, are the topmost in their electability, and are polling about the same on that score?

Yes, ladies and germs, it is passing strange.

What about the Richie Richies who say that can stomach Biden, and maybe some of the others, but if we nominate Sanders, they will just take their marbles and go home?

Yesterday’s poll says they represent about one percent of the registered voters. Bloomberg beats Trump by nine points, with seven percent undecided. Sanders beats Trump by only eight points, because one percent of registered voters switch from undecided to Trump. The tax cuts, don’t you know?

What do the new numbers tell us about Trump’s ceiling and about his floor?

They tell us that his ceiling is 44 percent and his floor is 42 percent—exactly, exactly what almost every other poll tells us.

Who is the one possible Democratic candidate who drives Trump down to his floor of support?

That would be Michael Bloomberg.

Trump is apparently urging his peeps to go vote in the Democratic primary and to cast their franchise for Sanders. Is that a wise move on his part.

I am happy to say that no, it is not a wise move on the Trumpster’s part.

He is pumping up the second most electable among the top six candidates, and a candidate who whips his ass by eight points in the general election.

 

 

 

 

Looking Good

squirrel balls

The above photo depicts a typical Republican senator, reflecting on whether to vote for or against witnesses..

This is the sort of thing that happens when you let a five-year-old determine American foreign policy, and then let the five-year-old determine his own defense strategy.

McConnell says he lacks votes to block witnesses, reports the Washington Post. This may have something to do with today’s Quinnipiac poll:

On week two of the Senate impeachment trial of President Donald Trump, registered voters say 75 – 20 percent that witnesses should be allowed to testify in the impeachment trial, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. Support for witness testimony includes 49 percent of Republicans, 95 percent of Democrats, and 75 percent of independents.

“There may be heated debate among lawmakers about whether witnesses should testify at the impeachment trial of President Trump, but it’s a different story outside the Beltway. Three-quarters of American voters say witnesses should be allowed to testify, and that includes nearly half of Republican voters,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Analyst Mary Snow.

So, what’s going on here? Well, the twenty percent who don’t want witnesses are the hardest of the hard core cultists. But, a lot of the rest of the Republicans—that would be the 49 percent of Republicans who want witnesses—are folks who have believed the Trump snake oil. They have believed he did nothing wrong. They yearn to hear from the witnesses who will blow the Democrats out of the water.

And what’s going to happen if the Republican senators deny them their moment of triumph? What’s going to happen when they don’t get to see Shifty Schiff slink of the room with his tails between his legs?

I’ll tell you what’s going to happen.

It’s gonna be Cognitive Dissonance City.

Now, I know that a lot of you cynics think just like Doofus Donald. A lot of you think that the Trump supporters’ appetite for bullshit has no limits. And I understand why you may entertain that view.

But I tell you: even the stupidest among us have some limits to their stupidity. If you keep on pushing, and keep on pushing some more, then, there will eventually come one glorious day, you will reach those limits.

Ladies and Germs, It Doesn’t Matter What Happens on Friday

If they vote to hear witnesses, then we’re off to the races. Time to restock the beer and popcorn.

If they vote to hear no witnesses, then we’ve still got them down where the hairs are short. Let them explain to the voters why they think presidents are above the law. Let them explain the coverup. Let them explain why Trump’s actions were perfect.

The Picture Keeps Getting Clearer

From the Quinnipiac Poll:

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, 54 percent of registered voters say that they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, while only 38 percent would vote for President Trump. Matchups against other top Democrats show:

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders topping Trump 53 – 39 percent;

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren ahead of Trump 52 – 40 percent;

California Sen. Kamala Harris beating Trump 51 – 40 percent;

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent.

Looking at all of the matchups, President Trump is stuck between 38 and 40 percent of the vote. These low numbers may partly be explained by a lack of support among white women, a key voting bloc that voted for Trump in the 2016 election. Today, white women go for the Democratic candidate by double digits in every scenario.Though it is a long 14 months until Election Day, Trump’s vulnerability among this important voting group does not bode well for him.

“In hypothetical matchups between President Trump and the top five Democratic presidential candidates, one key number is 40,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow. “It’s the ceiling of support for Trump, no matter the candidate.It hovers close to his job approval rating, which has stayed in a tight range since being elected.”

The Next President of the United States

next president

From today’s Quinnipiac poll:

In a very early hypothetical presidential matchup, Oprah Winfrey, running as a Democrat, beats Trump 52 – 39 percent.

Women rally to Oprah 58 – 33 percent, while men are split 45 – 45 percent. Oprah leads 88 – 4 percent among black voters and 66 – 24 percent among Hispanic voters, while white voters go 47 percent for Trump and 44 percent for Winfrey.

… Independent voters back Oprah 49 – 38 percent.

But American voters say 66 – 14 percent that electing a celebrity to the office of president is a bad idea.

In a question in which no opponent is named, voters say 65 – 24 percent that they would not be inclined to vote for Oprah for president.

These same voters say 62 – 34 percent they would not be inclined to vote for Trump.

A Stable Genius?

Meanwhile, the same poll shows that 53 percent of men think Trump is stable while 40 percent say he is not. But the view among the sisterhood is very different: stable, 39 percent; nutty as a fruitcake, 53 percent.

Both Sides are Right, I’m Afraid

both sides

Yesterday’s Quinnipiac Poll found that 60 percent of those polled were of the opinion that Trump does not share their values.

Meanwhile, 37 percent declared that Trump does indeed share their values, even if he does not partake of the majority’s values.

Clearly, both sides are absolutely correct in their assessments.

American White Men Are Not a Credit to their Race

not a credit

According to the Quinnipiac University poll published today,

President Donald Trump plunges to a new low as American voters disapprove 61 – 33 percent of the job he is doing, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. White men are divided 47 – 48 percent and Republicans approve 76 – 17 percent. White voters with no college degree, a key part of the president’s base, disapprove 50 – 43 percent.

Today’s approval rating is down from a 55 – 40 percent disapproval in a June 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. This is President Trump’s lowest approval and highest disapproval number since he was inaugurated.

American voters say 54 – 26 percent that they are embarrassed rather than proud to have Trump as president. Voters say 57 – 40 percent he is abusing the powers of his office and say 60 – 36 percent that he believes he is above the law.

President Trump is not levelheaded, say 71 – 26 percent of voters, his worst score on that character trait. Voter opinions of most other Trump qualities drop to new lows:

62 – 34 percent that he is not honest;

63 – 34 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;

59 – 39 percent that he does not care about average Americans;

58 – 39 percent that he is a strong person;

55 – 42 percent that he is intelligent;

63 – 34 percent that he does not share their values.

“It’s hard to pick what is the most alarming number in the troubling trail of new lows for President Donald Trump,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Profound embarrassment over his performance in office and deepening concern over his level-headedness have to raise the biggest red flags.”

More details here.

The “honest” and “intelligent” numbers are interesting. I suppose that I would have said yes to the question, “Is he a strong person?” But I am surprised that 55 percent viewed him as “intelligent.” That said, there are many ways to be smart, and many ways to be stupid.

Takeaway Lesson

The continuing decline of white people as a percentage of the overall American population is a great blessing. Let us pray that it accelerates.

***

Aardvark welcomes his readers in China, Mexico, and Congo–and continues, of course, to be grateful for his readers in Germany and France.

The Long Night of the Republicans’ “Souls”

dark night

It is almost midnight on Thursday, March 23, also known as the “long night of the [Republicans’] souls.”

Aardvark’s crystal ball is cloudy. We all wait in suspense for the vote on Friday. Poisonally, I don’t think it’s going to happen, any more than it happened tonight. But we shall see.

Meanwhile, 26 percent of the electorate have no idea in hell about what’s going on. Dog bites man.

But for the more sentient among us, the story is told by this evening’s press release from the Quinnipiac University Poll, which reads in part,

American voters disapprove 56 – 17 percent, with 26 percent undecided, of the Republican health care plan to replace Obamacare, the Affordable Care Act, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Support among Republicans is a lackluster 41 – 24 percent.

If their U.S. Senator or member of Congress votes to replace Obamacare with the Republican health care plan, 46 percent of voters say they will be less likely to vote for that person, while 19 percent say they will be more likely and 29 percent say this vote won’t matter, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Disapproval of the Republican plan is 56 – 22 percent among men, 56 – 13 percent among women, 54 – 20 percent among white voters, 64 – 10 percent among non-white voters, 80 – 3 percent among Democrats, 58 – 14 percent among independent voters and by margins of 2-1 or more in every age group.

One out of every seven Americans, 14 percent, think they will lose their health insurance under the Republican plan. That 14 percent includes 27 percent of voters in families with household income below $30,000, 18 percent of working class families and 14 percent of middle class families.

Fewer Americans would be covered under the GOP plan than are covered under Obamacare, 61 percent of voters find, while 8 percent say more would be covered and 18 percent say the number would be about the same.

So much winning!