With public impeachment hearings yet to come, according to the Washington Post this morning, Americans sharply divided over whether to impeach and remove Trump from office, Post-ABC poll finds:


I wish to draw your attention to the percentage who think “Trump did nothing wrong.” That would be 35 percent. Not 43 percent. Not 40 or 41 percent.

It’s 35 percent who still buy into Trump’s alternate universe.

35 percent, or something close to it, could well be Trump’s floor of support. Or the floor could be just a little lower than that. I don’t think it matters.

You will also note that 55 percent say he did something wrong, but some of them say it wasn’t that serious.

And ten percent of our population are out to lunch.

Ask yourself two questions. Are public hearings likely feature anything, anything at all, that will move the numbers in Trump’s favor? And are public hearings likely to provide information tending to make Trump’s position worse, in the public mind?

Meanwhile—even before public hearings, 18 percent of self-declared Republicans have concluded that Trump ought to be impeached and removed from office:


In Poll warning for Trump and Republicans: Danger ahead, Jennifer Rubin provides commentary and additional detail. She observes,

If they drill down on Trump’s approval numbers, Republicans might go into full panic mode. His approval numbers are atrocious among women (31/64), white college graduates (38/61), women college graduates (32/67), suburban dwellers (41/56) and independents (38/57). Among suburban women he trails 33 to 63 percent. He is surviving almost entirely on white evangelicals (74/23). …

All in all, if Republicans ever break free of their irrational fear of Trump and his base …, they might recognize that saving him is becoming incompatible with saving themselves.

Aardvark’s Animadversion

True. How very true. But what Ms. Rubin does not wish to point out—because Ms. Rubin is about as tendentious as a pundit can be—is that, as long as a very large portion of their constituency still lives in Neverneverland, deep-sixing Trump is also “incompatible with saving themselves.”

As I have said before, they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. They are the walking dead.

Sargent Weighs In

In The GOP defense of Trump is getting more corrupt. Here’s what’s next, Greg Sargent lets us know “What Trump wants from the Republicans”:

But the ultimate complication for the GOP might come from Trump himself. I submit that when Trump rage-tweets that we should “READ THE TRANSCRIPT!” and threatens to read it aloud on television, it signals where he’d really like this to end up: With Republicans unabashedly defending what he actually did do.

In other words, Trump wants Republicans to say: Trump was damn right to pressure Ukraine to investigate Biden, because Biden is corrupt. Trump himself has at times unabashedly told reporters that, yes, Ukraine should investigate Biden.

Trump has toggled between that and hiding behind his generic “corruption” claim, probably because his advisers told him the latter is safer. But I guarantee you his instinct is to go all the way.

Trump regularly calls on Republicans to fight to “win.” He wants them to throw aside any squeamishness about using all the tools at their disposal — including over the manipulation of our foreign policy and large swaths of the federal government — toward that end. Everybody is corrupt; it goes without saying that Biden and Democrats are; all that matters is who manipulates the rules more skillfully, and as a result, triumphs.

I don’t know whether Trump will end up going quite this far. But as more corruption is documented, Republicans will find it harder and harder to explain away — even as Trump’s demands that they go all-in behind that worsening picture of corruption grow louder and more insistent.

Aardvark’s Animadversion

Like I said, folks.

Dead men walking.

Smart and Smarter

Trump caught in an Iran trap. A smart analysis by Greg Sargent. An even smarter exposition by Jonathan Chait.


Greg Sargent, Mike Pence just revealed something important about Trump’s Iran decisions:

In an important essay, Gabriel Schoenfeld of the Niskanen Center notes that a key feature of the “malignant nationalism” animating Trump and his intellectual supporters is the notion that international integration that requires accepting any constraints on the nation’s prerogatives cannot ever be acknowledged to be succeeding.

Trump’s worldview did not permit an acknowledgment that the Iran deal — an imperfect but carefully negotiated settlement that our allies continued to favor — was preventing nuclear weapons. So he had to say it was weak and a failure, and he had to pull out. Instead, Trump vowed to be so unilaterally tough that he’d force total capitulation (without firing a shot) alone.

This has made war more likely, and as Susan E. Rice points out, avoiding it would involve recommitting to a diplomatic solution that would entail settling for something short of total capitulation. But Trump can’t do that. Yet he doesn’t appear to want war, either.

So, as the Pence interview shows, we’re trapped in a situation where Trump is lurching wildly between reluctance and belligerence, even as the situation continues to escalate.

Even Smarter

Jonathan Chait sees Trump’s aim as a rebranding exercise for the Iran nuclear deal, just what he really wanted—and still probably wants—is to rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare. IMHO, absolutely right, and right on point.

Jonathan Chait, Why Trump Is So Confused About His Own Iran Policy:

Obviously, actual Iran hawks in the Republican foreign-policy elite didn’t design their policy around the objective of reducing anti-American chants. The chants were just an easy way of stoking resentment among the Fox News audience. What they didn’t quite count on was that one of those angry couch-potato grandfathers in their target demographic would be elected president.

So Trump hates the Iran deal. But he’s also not onboard with the actual conservative policy alternative, which is to use threats of war to force Iran to give up not only its nuclear program but also its support for militant proxies and possibly also (depending on which version of the strategy you listen to) its entire theocratic system of government.

Trump is now publicly describing his own national security adviser as a dangerous warmonger. “John Bolton is absolutely a hawk,” he tells NBC. “If it was up to him, he’d take on the whole world at one time, okay?”

What seems to be going on here is that Trump just assumed he could cut a better deal with Iran than Obama did, just as he assumed he could design a better health-care-reform law than Obama did. Just as Trump didn’t realize the actual Republican health-care plan was to take insurance away from people who couldn’t afford it on their own, he also didn’t realize the actual Republican Iran policy is a conflict ratchet that requires him to at least be willing to start a massive war.

So he’s trying to get out of his own mess with the strategy he used with NAFTA. Step one is to call the existing deal the worst agreement of all time and cancel it. Step two is to negotiate small tweaks. Step three is to declare the tweaked/rebranded deal to be the greatest treaty of all time.

The notion that Iran would become rich was the chief conservative complaint about the nuclear deal. Now

The Nature of His Delusions

cat and lion

Greg Sargent, Trump is staking reelection on one of his biggest lies

Yes, I know. You are sick and tired of Trump’s bullshit, and just wish it would all go away. Brethren and sistern, I feel your pain.

Nevertheless, he is still with us, at least for a season longer. And as long as he is still with us, it is worth knowing how much of his bullshit he believes, himself, and how much consists of stick-in-the-throat lies. By now, it’s plain there is some of each. But as time marches on, and we gain yet more familiarity with his disordered mind, it seems, at least to me, that the portion of his bullshit consisting of plain lies goes up, and the proportion consisting of rooted factual delusion is relatively low.

Greg Sargent does a nice job of dissecting Trump’s lies relating to trade with China—and how he’s preparing the ground for a loss in the trade war.

The delusion lies largely not in counterfactual beliefs on issues such as who pays the tariffs, but rather in the counterfactual belief that he can keep on bullshitting his way through life and get away with it.


Welcome to today’s readers from Canada, the Philippines, the UK, and the United States. Also to the good folks from Thailand who took a look in the last few minutes.