Yesterday, the respectedQuinnipiac Poll took another whack at the piñata. Here is how they describe some of their key findings:
Among all registered voters, Democratic candidates lead President Trump in general election matchups by between 4 and 9 percentage points, with Bloomberg claiming the biggest numerical lead against Trump:
- Bloomberg tops Trump 51 – 42 percent;
- Sanders defeats Trump 51 – 43 percent;
- Biden beats Trump 50 – 43 percent;
- Klobuchar defeats Trump 49 – 43 percent;
- Warren wins narrowly over Trump 48 – 44 percent;
- Buttigieg is also slightly ahead of Trump 47 – 43 percent.
President Trump’s favorability rating is underwater, as 42 percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 55 percent have an unfavorable view of him. However, it is his best favorability rating since a March 7 , 2017 poll, when his favorability rating was a negative 43 – 53 percent.
Like President Trump, the top four Democratic candidates in the primary are viewed more unfavorably than favorably. Warren has the worst net score (favorable minus unfavorable) among all registered voters, with Biden close behind. Biden’s favorability numbers have been declining over the last year since his positive 53 – 33 percent favorability rating in a December 19 , 2018 poll. In today’s poll:
- Warren gets a negative 39 – 47 percent favorability rating;
- Biden gets a negative 43 – 50 percent;
- Bloomberg gets a negative 34 – 40 percent, with 25 percent who haven’t heard enough about him;
- Sanders gets a negative 44 – 49 percent;
- Buttigieg gets a positive 36 – 32 percent, and 31 percent haven’t heard enough about him;
- Klobuchar gets a positive 32 – 22 percent, with 44 percent who haven’t heard enough about her.
So, that means any Democratic candidate could beat Trump?
That’s what simplistic and misleading headlines are likely to say. The literal answer to the question is yes, they all get more actual votes than Trump, as, by the way, did Hillary Clinton. In fact, however, the margin of the popular vote victory is what will make the difference in the Electoral College.
Isn’t it very odd that Sanders and Bloomberg, who are so different, are the topmost in their electability, and are polling about the same on that score?
Yes, ladies and germs, it is passing strange.
What about the Richie Richies who say that can stomach Biden, and maybe some of the others, but if we nominate Sanders, they will just take their marbles and go home?
Yesterday’s poll says they represent about one percent of the registered voters. Bloomberg beats Trump by nine points, with seven percent undecided. Sanders beats Trump by only eight points, because one percent of registered voters switch from undecided to Trump. The tax cuts, don’t you know?
What do the new numbers tell us about Trump’s ceiling and about his floor?
They tell us that his ceiling is 44 percent and his floor is 42 percent—exactly, exactly what almost every other poll tells us.
Who is the one possible Democratic candidate who drives Trump down to his floor of support?
That would be Michael Bloomberg.
Trump is apparently urging his peeps to go vote in the Democratic primary and to cast their franchise for Sanders. Is that a wise move on his part.
I am happy to say that no, it is not a wise move on the Trumpster’s part.
He is pumping up the second most electable among the top six candidates, and a candidate who whips his ass by eight points in the general election.