Trump’s Reelection—or not: a Fuller Exposition

ruver in Egypt

Ronald Brownstein, The Biggest Obstacle to Trump’s Victory in 2020: There may be an unprecedented level of discontent with the president among voters satisfied with the economy.

A much more detailed explanation of the point I made about electability in the immediately preceding post. By Ron Brownstein, a highly acute political analyst.

Please read it for yourself. But here’s a short summary, in my own words.

Remember the kerfuffle over the crowd size at the inaugural? Trump can’t count. When his core delusions are involved, he loses the ability to enumerate. On Inauguration Day, his grandiosity literally blinded him to the crowd size.

Now, as Brownstein lays out, Trump thinks he’s going to win the election by emphasizing our tribal divisions. In fact, there are not enough hard core members of his racist tribe to push him to victory. But in his delusional mind, his folks are the majority, not a large minority.  Unless he finds a way out of his delusion, he will continue on with a fundamentally flawed reelection strategy. And the fundamental flaw in his strategy will be his electoral downfall.

Your Daily Dose of Optimism

optimist cat

David Brooks, Your Daily Dose of Optimism!

Very good piece. Please read it for yourself to learn why you should be optimistic this morning.

Nadler: Hope Hicks testimony is huge gift in legal battle with Trump

My sense is that “huge” is a little too strong—and that Jerry is having a go at messing with Trump’s mind.

All that said, it’s also true that Trump is pressing the principle of “executive privilege” way past any reasonable limits, based on existing case law. And it’s true that it’s generally a good thing when your adversary overplays his hand.

The Monmouth University Poll

“Fewer than 4-in-10 registered voters (37%) say that Trump should be reelected in 2020. A majority of 59% say it is time to have someone new in the Oval Office.”

My comment: a while back, I (along with lots of others) figured out that a majority of Trump supporters are cultists, but a significant minority of them are people who are happy that the cultists are being fooled into voting for the plutocratic agenda. Based on that insight, the key strategic question then became, how to peel off the cynics from the cultists?

By this point, it’s becoming clearer every day that the best progressive tactic to reach this strategic goal is to do nothing at all. Just let Trump be Trump. Let him keep on riling up the third of the country who love him—by doing and saying things that royally piss off the other two thirds.

Buck Up, Everyone, and Again I Say, Buck Up

Too many on our side cannot get over 2016, and cannot get over the mind-numbing devotion that a huge proportion of our fellow ‘Mericans still show for the country’s most successful con man. I understand those things. I understand that politics is tricky and unpredictable, and so it’s vital to take your own predictions with large grains of salt.

But, folks, facts are facts.

This from the Plum Line of an hour ago this afternoon:

[Trump’s]reelection campaign … is “responsive to Trump’s impulses,” using whatever outrage he has ginned up on a given day to get his most outraged supporters even more outraged. If it were possible for a MAGA hat-wearing Trumpkin to vote 10 or 20 times if he or she gets mad enough, that might be a brilliant strategy.

But of course, it isn’t. The Trump campaign believes that it can duplicate what happened in 2016, but what it’s really putting in place is a repeat of the 2018 election.

If you’ve forgotten how that one went, here’s the basic story. In response to the Trump presidency, a wave of liberal activism and organizing swept the country. While a few Democratic candidates ran on their opposition to Trump, most spent the bulk of their time talking about issues such as health care; the anger at Trump was so baked into the dynamic of the election that they didn’t have to promote it.

Then Trump himself took over the election with what he believed was a brilliant strategy to motivate his base of supporters with two messages: This election is about me, and also immigrants are coming to kill you.

“I’m not on the ticket, but I am on the ticket, because this is also a referendum about me,” Trump told voters that October. “I want you to vote. Pretend I’m on the ballot.”

And he warned of caravans of Central Americans coming to invade the country, saying that Americans’ very lives were at stake in the election. Days before the vote, then-speaker Paul Ryan pleaded with Trump to stop talking about the issue, but Trump “boasted to Ryan that his focus on immigration has fired up the base.”

In the end, turnout was enormous, at more than 50 percent, compared with just 37 percent in the last midterm election. Democrats took back the House and made huge gains at the state level.

And now, Trump seems to be putting in place exactly the same strategy for 2020. With the Democratic candidates set to hold their first debates next week, Politico reports, “the president and his political team are angling to dominate the news cycle with carefully released tidbits meant to keep the public hooked on the machinations of the commander in chief.”

So what will we see? Democrats will have two debates that will surely include criticisms of the president, but will probably focus mostly on the issues their voters find important, such as health care, climate change, and economic inequality.

Meanwhile, Trump will be shouting, “Everybody look at me!” as he tweets out insults.

Which will certainly grab some attention. But by now we should all have learned that when Trump grabs attention, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s helping himself politically. The result is often just the opposite.