The Georgia Runoff: A Gut Check and a Vote Check

Inasmuch as this seems to be the year of the gut, I will tell you first off that my gut tells me that Ossoff and Warnock are going to lose in the runoff, albeit narrowly. Now let us see what the numbers actually say.

Per the AJC this morning, here are the data on Georgia results for Biden, Trump, Jorgensen (the Libertarian), Purdue, and Ossoff.

Biden, 49.5%, 2,465,781

Trump, 49.3%, 2,455,428

Jorgensen, 1.2%, 62,894

Purdue, 49.8%, 2,456,322

Ossoff, 47.9%, 2,366,123

And here are some reasonable conclusions that we might draw from these data.

Jon Ossoff underperformed Joe Biden last week. And, unless that can be overcome, Ossoff will lose the election

That said, let’s compare Purdue, Trump, and Biden.

Biden, who won Georgia, received 9,459 more votes than David Purdue.

Thus, on January 5, if all the November Biden supporters show up and vote for Ossoff, and if all the November Purdue supporters show up and vote for Purdue once again, then Ossoff will win the runoff.

And what about the Libertarian Party supporters? One might think that they might come out and support Purdue in the runoff. On the other hand, if they didn’t vote for Purdue in November, which they apparently did not, will they really change their minds come January?