Most of what I have written in this blog over the past four years has been wrong. The main reason for the multiple errors has been reliance on the polls, which—whether individually or averaged together—were consistently wrong in highly material ways.
Quibble me no quibbles about how they were generally off only by “a few percentage points.” That’s generally true—depending on how you define a “few.” Overall, however, they gave a false and misleading picture of the overall situation, and the truth was not in them.
That is my primary error. My secondary error lay in this. I interpreted the (erroneous) polls in light of (my) common sense, and in light of actual voting data, especially from 2018. But my common sense was off by a noticeable margin, in that I underestimated the number of fools and knaves who live among us.
A reasonable response on my part would be just to give the whole thing up, and cultivate begonias, or start learning Swedish, or something of that nature. But that is not how I am made. I feel a need to try to understand what is happening around me.
So, it’s time to start over, beginning with some actual numbers.
Some actual numbers will follow in the next post.