Another Bum Prediction from George Will

In his latest piece, Will apparently presumes that Biden will win the election. That is not the bum prediction of which I speak.

The bum prediction is that, come election night, Democrats will sing the praises of the Electoral College:

Because of what Drew DeSilver of the Pew Research Center calls “the electoral vote inflation factor” — one of the electoral college’s many benefits — Joe Biden’s victory, which will be decisive in the popular vote, will be even more so in electoral votes. Since the politics of mass mobilization began in America with the election of Andrew Jackson in 1828, the winner’s share of the electoral vote has averaged 1.36 times the popular vote share. For example, in 2012, Barack Obama won 51 percent of the popular vote but 62 percent of the electoral vote (332 of 538). This inflation factor was especially dramatic, and civically beneficial, in 1960, when John F. Kennedy defeated Richard M. Nixon in the popular vote by a minuscule 0.16 percent (112,827 out of 68,832,483 votes cast). But Kennedy had a 15.6 percent electoral-vote advantage (303 to 219; 56.4 percent to 40.8 percent). This was 97.5 times his popular-vote margin, which gave the nation a sense of a decisive election.

So, on Wednesday, many Democrats might have kindlier thoughts about the electoral college. Because Democratic candidates lost two of this century’s first five presidential elections while winning the popular vote, many Democrats have called for abolishing the electoral-vote system and adopting election by direct popular vote. This year, the electoral-vote-inflation factor favoring Biden should have the wholesome effect of dampening Democrats’ enthusiasm for abolition.

Well, other Democrats and progressives will have to speak for themselves. As for myself, unlike George Will, I believe in democracy.

I have the good fortune this year to live in a swing state, so my vote counts a lot. Over across the state line, my vote would not be worth a bucket of warm spit, depicted above.

This sort of thing is not something up with which we should put.