Thursday Evening Update,

OR, A SHIT LOAD OF SPECULATIVE SHY TRUMP VOTERS, CURRENTLY HIDING IN THE WOODPILE

Corresponding figures for some other states, also from fivethirtyeight.com:

  • Florida, Biden + 2.2
  • Georgia, Biden + 1.6
  • North Carolina, Biden + 2.0

in 2016, there were 47 million early or mail-in votes. In 2020, as of ths afternoon, with several more days to go, the corresponding number is about 80 million. Moreover,

In 20 states that report party registration data, 18.2 million registered Democrats have already voted, compared with 11.5 million Republicans and 8.8 million with no party affiliation. The data does not show for whom the votes were cast.

In 2016, Trump got 46.1 percent of the total vote. But third parties played a significant role that year. Thus, a more relevant data point is that, in 2016, Trump received 48.9 percent of all voters who voted for one of the two principal candidates—while Clinton, obviously, garnered the other 51.1 percent of that universe.

Trump voters in 2016 numbered just short of 63 million. With a much higher turnout expected in 2020—many are projecting about 150 million—Trump would have to find 73.4 million voters this year to win a comparable share of the electorate, and thus to have a good shot at winning the Electoral College.

To perform equally well in 2020, Trump would have to receive the votes of everybody who voted for him in 2016, plus another 10.4 million new Trump voters.

Whatever these hypothetical 10.4 million new Trump voters have been doing in the last week or so, it’s pretty clear that they haven’t been showing up at the polls.

Maybe they are the proverbial shy Trump voters—and have been thus far been way too timid to show their faces.