Two Weeks to Go

Some of the state polls out this morning show a tightening of the race in some of the swing states.

Nationally, Biden is up by 8.6 points in the RealClearPolitics average. It’s just an arithmetic average, not a weighted average. In elections since 2004, looking at RCP 14 days from the election as compared with final results, we see errors ranging from 0.1 percent to 3.0 percent.

Over at fivethirtyeight.com, which does weighted averages, not plain vanilla arithmetic averages, Biden is up this morning by 10.3 points (52.2 to 41.9), a slight slippage from yesterday.

You will recall that, last time, Trump won the Electoral College because he managed to eke out slight victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Otherwise, he would have lost by 287 to 251, instead of winning by 306 to 232.

If Trump loses all three of those states this time, he will lose the election unless he carries some states that Hillary won in 2016, despite being down nationally by nine or ten points.

As I said, the very latest polls show tightening in Pennsylvania. Some of the talking heads this morning were bloviating about how they know-they just know—they just know—that the races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are tighter than the polls show.

You can make of that what you will.

As for myself, the only tools in my toolbox are data, interpreted in the light of common sense. Last time around, Trump successfully appealed to some voters’ concerns about factories moving to Mexico and similar concerns. This time around, Trump’s closing argument is all about Poor, Poor, Pitiful Me.

And, by the way, the factories haven’t come back, and he has managed by build 3.5 miles of new walls on a southern border over 1900 miles long.