Jonathan V. Last gazes into his crystal ball, asking whether the Republican Party will return to sanity any time soon. Answer: no, probably not. He writes,
For starters, you’d have to believe that Donald Trump is going to disappear and decline to exercise any dynastic ambitions. This would run counter to information already in evidence about the Trump family.
Next, you’d have to believe that there were places in the party for non-Trumpy, non-conspiracy crazy, non-nationalists to get footholds. Well, here is a fun fact from Dave Wasserman: When Trump took office there were 241 R’s in the House; 115 of them have resigned, been defeated, or retired/are retiring.
What’s left of the elected party will be the Trumpiest parts.
The biggest factor, though, is what Republican voters actually want. And the evidence keeps piling up that the Republican party today is reasonably representative of voter preferences. Nearly half the GOP is against wearing masks in public. Less than half of Republican voters say they would get a COVID-19 vaccine. Then there’s the Q-Anon believers who keep winning primaries. So far, they’ve gotten 600,000 votes.
Please Hold That Thought
Please hold that thought as you look at the latest data from fivethirtyeight.com.
Subtracting 40.7 from 55.9, you readily see that Trump “approval” is 15.2 points under water. That means that, among the wishy-washy, an. unfavorable view of Trump is getting baked into the cake.
But my point here is not the top number, it’s the bottom number. If you go to the actual website, grab hold of the vertical line, and roll it leftward, back to late March and early April, you will see that Trump approvers numbered 45.8, at their height.
In two months, he’s down from 45.8 to 40.7.
Still, a shockingly high, vomit-inducing number.
And yes, by George, he still has most of his base with him. (“Most” meaning just under 9 out of 10.)
And now, he’s trying to kill those folks off by making them believe lethal lies about the virus.
Reason would tell us he has a little ways yet to sink. And once he has sunk as low as he is going to sink, however low or high that is, we will be left with a Republican Party that has banished anyone exhibiting signs of sanity.
And, yes, there will always be Alabama.