PREDICTION: THINGS WILL GET CURIOSER AND CURIOSER
I have gazed into my crystal ball, and here is what I have seen.
- Trump will lose the 2020 election. Bigly.
- Trump will not concede the election.
- There may be some talk about a military coup, with Trump as leader of the junta. But the brass will tell Orange Man to take a long walk off a short pier.
- Having done what mayhem he is capable of, Trump will vacate the White House on January 20, 2021. Failing that, he will be forcibly removed.
- Trump will found Trump News, to monetize the ignorance of his remaining supporters.
- At least at first, around half of the people who still call themselves Republicans will believe, or claim to believe, that the election was stolen from Trump. Strict adherence to this alternative reality will, in effect, become the chief criterion for continued membership in the party. The Republican organization and the Republican brand will belong only to the alternative reality folks. For clarity, I will refer to this transmogrified party as the New Republican Party.
- A handful of the remaining Republican senators, and a larger portion of the Republican House members will proclaim their allegiance to the New Republican Party. For some years, these folks will continue to get re-elected in the deep, deep red jurisdictions they represent.
- Left without a political home will be
- lots of former country club Republicans
- a significant portion of the Republican political class—though who the hell cares about them?—and, of much more moment,
- Plutocrats, Big Finance, and many businesses of all sizes, especially the really big ones.
- Having lost their political home, the country clubbers, the plutocrats, the financiers, and lots of the businesses will, faute de mieux, form a new political party, most probably called the Conservative Party.
- On occasion, the Conservatives will make common cause with the New Republicans. But, as for winning elections, the Southern Strategy will have reached the end of its inglorious 50 year history.
- Never again will it be a winning electoral strategy for Big Business to rely on the most racist and backward among the population. Instead of advancing delusions and alternative realities, the center-right Conservative Party will be dragged, kicking and screaming, toward reliance on
- actual facts
- actual reason, and
- actual persuasion.