Let’s Do It by the Numbers

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The graphics are from fivethirtyeight.com, around 9:00 AM, Eastern time. Five takeaways:

  1. After a little blip last week, the difference between Trump disapprovers and Trump approvers is once again widening, and now stands at 8.4 points.
  2. Trump approvers are holding pretty steady, while Trump disapprovers are slowly climbing. In other words, a discernible sliver of the population is changing from “I don’t know” to “I disapprove.” One may hazard the guess that a lot of them are in the “white people over 65” demographic—which went decisively for Trump is 2016 but has now flipped.
  3. Compare the two graphics. As of today, 52 percent disapprove of Trump but only 48.5 percent want Democrats to control Congress. That tells me that 3.5 percent of our population are rock-ribbed Republicans who now hate Donald Trump’s guts. Not good news for Orange Man.
  4. The Orange Man approvers and disapprovers add up to 95.6 percent of the population. The remaining 4.4 percent—and God bless them, because it takes all kinds to make a world—probably lack enough literacy to read a newspaper. By contrast, the second graph implies that 10.9 percent of the country are not sure whether they want Republicans or Democrats to control Congress.
  5. Finally, given the binary approve/disapprove choice, 43.6 percent “approve” of Trump. But only 40.6 plan to vote for Republican senators and congressional representatives. Yet another piece of evidence that the Trump “approval” number masks some weakness.