Back on April 18, I posted some numbers from the fivethirtyeight.com data set representing a rolling average of “all polls” measuring Trump’s “approval” and “disapproval.” The rolling average numbers are weighted by the web site’s estimation of the relative reliability of the polls, taking into account data size and methodology. The web site publishes three such data sets, one for “all adults” (registered and unregistered, more likely to vote, less likely to vote), a second data set of polls limited to registered voters, and a third data set of both types of polls, thrown in together. I used the third of these, the “all polls” data set.
Trump “disapprovers” exceeded Trump “approvers” throughout this period, but by varying amounts.
I showed how, at the time of the Great Pivot, in mid-March, Trump’s disapprovers exceeded his approvers by 10.5 percent. This was also the time when the Daily Trump Gaslighting Show got under way. From Mid-March to the end of March, the gaslighting seemed to be doing its job: he remained under water the whole time, but by the end of March, he was only under water by 4 points, not 10.5 points.
But, as the poet has said, April is the cruelest month. Between March 28, Trump sank further under water. My post showed that by April 18, he was back under water by 8 points—and he was, pretty reliably, sinking by two tenths of a point every day.
Now, another 10 days have passed. And where does he stand now?
You got it. It’s 10 percent. And you didn’t even have to go to fivethirtyeight.com to look it up.
How looooooow can he gooooooo?