Pollyanna is very unhappy about this post.
Jonathan V. Last, We Cannot “Reopen” America: No matter when government stay-at-home orders are revoked, the American economy will not reopen. Because the source of the economic shock is not government orders. It’s the pandemic.
To more or less sum it up:
Governments cannot reopen the economy.
Only people can reopen the economy.
People will not reopen the economy until a reliable vaccine is available.
In the meantime, very large sectors of the economy will collapse. Certainly the airline industry, but lots of others, too. Movie theaters. Casino gambling. Mass sports.
Which, because things are all interconnected, will lead to another Great Depression.
As for almost all the experts and thought leaders, they are operating within the mental coordinates of a world that no longer exists, in consequence of which, their prognostications are wildly and unjustifiably optimistic.
So that’s about it. Other than this, things will be just fine and dandy.
Not being a world-renowned economic thought leader myself, I am not in a position either to rebut, or to confirm and endorse, the views of Messrs. Eberstadt and Last. Just wanted to pass ‘em along—and to show that I don’t always listen to Pollyanna.
All I know is that we are all swimming to the other side.