Politico, Study: Elderly Trump voters dying of coronavirus could cost him in November: An academic journal projects that deaths of 65-and-older Republican voters in several swing states will far exceed those of Democrats.
So, how’s this for a blinding insight? If a thing is bound to happen, then that thing will in fact happen.
Mass casualties from the coronavirus could upend the political landscape in battleground states and shift contests away from President Donald Trump, according to a new analysis.
Academic researchers writing in a little-noticed public administration journal — Administrative Theory & Praxis — conclude that when considering nothing other than the tens of thousands of deaths projected from the virus, demographic shifts alone could be enough to swing crucial states to Joe Biden in the fall.
“The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative electorate leading into this election — and that’s simply just a calculation of age,” Andrew Johnson, the lead author and a professor of management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, said in an interview. “The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states that’s the key to a GOP victory.”
Johnson and his colleagues Wendi Pollock and Beth M. Rauhaus projected that even with shelter-in-place orders remaining in effect, about 11,000 more Republicans than Democrats who are 65 and older could die before the election in both Michigan and North Carolina.
In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in that age category could be lost. …
The analysis comes as Trump’s handling of the coronavirus increasingly is turning away seniors who buoyed him in 2016, when the cohort supported him over Hillary Clinton by 7 percentage points. Older voters consistently vote at higher rates and have broken in the GOP’s favor for the better part of two decades.
Seniors by significant numbers nationally prioritize defeating the virus over reviving the sputtering economy, a spate of recent polls shows. …
Researchers on the fatality study said they found the virus could also ravage Republicans across Florida and Georgia, where GOP leaders have been pulling back on aggressive defenses.