Anomalies

no tests

I want to return to the most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, and puzzle through some of the numbers. These number in particular, ranked from lowest to highest:

Percentage of registered voters who are “not at all worried” “that you or someone in your immediate family might catch the coronavirus”: 7.

Percentage of who do not trust Dr. Fauci: 8. (Note that 60 percent trust him, while a whopping 34 percent are not sure, one way or the other.)

Percentage of people who are either “not at all worried” (7, see above) or “not too worried” (18) that “you or someone in your immediate family might catch the coronavirus”: 25.

Percentage who think the “United States will take too long in loosening restrictions and the economic impact will be even worse with more jobs being lost”: 32.

Percentage who say “strongly approve” of Trump’s job as president: 32.

Percentage who are “satisfied” with the federal government’s role in ensuring enough medical supplies and in “ensuring that there is enough testing to determine how far the coronavirus has spread”: 34, to each question. (Those “unsatisfied” were 62 and 64 percent respectively. Significantly, on these particular questions, only very small numbers felt they didn’t have enough information to answer, one way or another.)

Percentage who generally believe what Trump says about the coronavirus: 36.

Percentage who think Trump would be better than Biden at “handling a [generic, unspecified] crisis”: 38. (47 thought Biden would be better than Trump; the remaining 15 percent gave various responses to the generic crisis-handling question.)

Percentage who say their “feelings” about Trump are either “very positive” (31) or “somewhat positive”: 41

Percentage who say they plan to vote for Trump this November: 42.

Percentage who say they approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis: 44.

Percentage who say they “strongly” (32) or “somewhat” approve of Trump’s job as president: 46.

Now to do a little interpreting. Here are some of my thoughts. But please feel free to draw your own conclusions. We report, you decide.

The “Liberty” Death Cultist Protesters

Trump is doing a splendid job of appealing to the seven percent of voters who are sure they and their family won’t catch the disease and to voters who are sure that Dr. Fauci doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

And do remember that pretty much all these folks believe that God is an old man in the sky who micromanages the universe, and who is right now, in the month of April, visiting the plague mostly on despised brown-skinned people.

Right now, Trump has those folks’ November vote well and truly nailed down. And, by George, he wants to keep it that way.

The Thirty Percenters

Look at all those numbers ranging between 32 and 38 percent. Here we see the hard core Trump cultists. Not exactly big news, but certainly confirmative of what we already knew.

But here is something interesting: only about a quarter of them are die-hard (pardon the pun) Know Nothings. The remaining three quarters are not sure whether to believe Dr. Fauci or not.

“I Know Trump is Lying About the Coronavirus, But I Support Him Anyway”

Only 36 percent believe Trump is giving reliable medical advice, but, compared with the 36 percent who say they believe him,

  • another six percent plan to vote for him anyway,
  • another eight percent approve of his handling of the coronavirus, and
  • another ten percent approve of his job as president, generally.

Who, pray tell, are these folks who know Trump is lying but support him anyway? This morning, I let my imagination run wild and came up with some wild explanations. But only one makes sense, and that is the speculation I will share with you. I think these are people who approve of Trump’s manful refusal to exercise the federal government’s power to control the supply chain, to ensure that supplies are sufficient to meet the need.

Socialism!

Communism!

Better to let tens of thousands die than to lend support to socialist, communistic actions!

Heaven Forfend! Strong federal action to solve pressing social problems might become a habit!

But, as Pollyanna might say, I suppose we may be grateful that only six percent of our fellow Mericans know Trump is lying but plan to vote for him because he blocked communistic proposals to supply the country with medical supplies.

UPDATE

A new post this afternoon takes a deeper dive into the WSJ/NBC poll than I was about to do—I didn’t have the “crosstabs”—and finds considerable evidence that Trump’s effort to whip up the rubes involves riling up a “truly shriveling minority” of voters. Take a look for yourself.

That conclusion is fully consistent with my instinct and, I think, with common sense. But data are very useful, to confirm intuition and common sense.

Apart from suffering from clinical narcissism and the inability to absorb factual information, Trump is also a riverboat gambler. But he is a piss poor riverboat gambler. He does not know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away, know when to run.

So I stand by my prediction that he’s going to get back to the Nuremberg rallies, come mid-May or sooner. And my prediction that, “truly shriveling minority” as they may be, they will nevertheless, in their thousands and tens of thousands, come along to the rallies in their Ford trucks, coughing and sneezing all the way.