We all know about the 78,000 voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin who swung the election to Trump in 2016. Tonight, a Quinnipiac poll tells us some things about electability in those three states. The poll was taken just before the debate, between February 12 and February 18.
There is bad news, there is good news, and there is informative news.
Wisconsin
With X as the nominee, Democrats win/lose, and by how much?
| Biden | lose by 7 points |
| Bloomberg | lose by 8 points |
| Buttigieg | lose by 8 points |
| Klobuchar | lose by 11 points |
| Sanders | lose by 7 points |
| Warren | lose by 10 points |
If these data are accurate, Wisconsin is close to being a lost cause. Insofar as you want to worry about Wisconsin anyway, Biden and Sanders are tied for being the least unelectable of the lot.
Michigan
With X as the nominee, Democrats win/lose, and by how much?
| Biden | win by 3 points |
| Bloomberg | win by 5 points |
| Buttigieg | win by 1 point |
| Sanders | win by 4 points |
| Klobuchar | win by 1 point |
| Warren | win by 2 points |
In sum, before the debate, in Michigan Bloomberg appears to be the most electable, followed by Sanders, followed by Biden. The other three are way too close for comfort.
Pennsylvania
With X as the nominee, Democrats win/lose, and by how much?
| Biden | win by 8 points |
| Bloomberg | win by 6 points |
| Buttigieg | win by 4 points |
| Klobuchar | win by 7 points |
| Sanders | win by 4 points |
| Warren | win by 3 points |
In sum, before the debate, in Pennsylvania, Biden, Bloomberg, and Klotuchar stood out in electability.
That said, because Michigan is much closer than Pennsylvania, a primary voter mainly concerned with electability should place more emphasis on electability in Michigan than on electability in Pennsylvania. Using that criterion, in picking between Sanders and Biden on electability, data driven voters using this set of data should pick Sanders.
Bottom Line Conclusions
- Based on these data alone, an electability-driven primary voter would choose among Biden, the pre-debate Bloomberg, and Sanders. An electability-driven primary voter would not seriously consider Buttigieg, Klobuchar, or Warren.
- Based on these data alone, Biden’s claim to be more electable than Sanders lacks empirical support.
- In 2016 Trump won Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by seven tenths of one percent, each. He won Michigan by two tenths of one percent. In Michigan, based on these data, Sanders is a smidge more electable than Biden in Michigan.
