That Gallup Poll

Lots of folks, on the teevee and here at Happy Acres—not to mention Fox News—are talking about the jump in Trump’s approval rating in the latest Gallup poll.

Now, folks, don’t get me wrong. It’s metaphysically possible that the latest Gallup poll reflects political reality. But before jumping to conclusions, you may wish to look at the big picture.

Or, if you would prefer to wring your hands and rend your garments, just skip the rest of this post.

Gallup is one poll. Real Clear Politics has a much-watched poll of polls. The latest data show Trump disapproval at 51.9 percent and approval at 45.0 percent.

The Real Clear Politics poll of poll just averages them up. Many prefer the poll of polls offered by fivethirtyeight.com, which also looks at lots of polls, but weights them for methodology and reliability.

Here is their weighted average of all polls, as of early this morning.

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And here is their more reliable weighted average of polls of “likely or registered voters.

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Why the Fixation on the Gallup Poll?

Among progressives, it’s because we haven’t recovered from the trauma of 2016, and are selectively looking for evidence to support the instinctive pessimism with which too many of us are burdened.