Bruce Gyory (“a Democratic political strategist and an adjunct professor of political science at SUNY-Albany”) lays it all out in Where Does Trump Really Stand with Voters, One Year Out? Here’s what we can tell from polling on impeachment, the economy, and the president’s approval rating.
He argues essentially the same thesis I have advanced, though he has lots more data and analytical nuance. Gyori writes,
So the lesson congressional Republicans learned from 2010-2016—namely that if they could just avoid hard-right primaries, first from Tea Party candidates and then from Trump supporters, they could hold on in a general election—has reached a cul-de-sac (to use an appropriately suburban metaphor). Congressional Republicans who choose to oppose Trump will still risk defeat in a primary. But the polling data increasingly suggests that if they embrace Trump, that will prove fatal in a general election. Extracting themselves from that trap will be all but impossible outside ruby-red districts and states.