Nancy Cook and Ben White, ‘They are riding a rubber ducky into alligator-infested waters’: Trump faces a contracting U.S. factory sector, a narrow path to trade victories and investors spooked by recession risks — all before an election year
You should probably read the whole thing, but here are some choice bits:
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said the U.S. will fall into a recession if the president keeps escalating the trade standoff with China, including another round of tariff hikes in December. “The president has until the end of the year to turn it around with China,” Zandi said. …
Current and former administration officials acknowledge the ultimate fate of the tariffs against China lie solely with the president, who has not been swayed by the pleas of business leaders, or even his own advisers, to cut a deal with China.
And here’s the nub of it:
A former senior White House official said Trump does not view a protracted trade war with China — even if it means reduced manufacturing and another summer of farmers slammed by retaliatory tariffs — as a political negative.
“Frankly I don’t think he really understands any of this,” the former official said of the economic impact of the trade fights. “The manufacturing slowdown, the lack of corporate investment, what’s happening to confidence — all of this was totally predictable based on what he’s done. But he sees it as a political advantage, that he can tell people he got tough on China and needs to finish the job.”
The official added that there are few senior advisers left in the White House who will push back strongly on Trump’s pugnacious approach to trade. “The sad reality is that in the first 1,000 days of his presidency he managed to get rid of everybody who would tell him the truth or anything he didn’t want to hear.”
So, Plutocrats, How’s That Faustian Bargain Workin’ Out for Ya?
As the man said, it was totally predictable that taking a sledgehammer to the international trading system would cause economic chaos.
And ya know something else that was totally predictable? That putting an idiot into office would lead to idiotic economic policy.
Yesterday’s readers came from Canada, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Spain, Thailand, the UK, and the US. Lot o’ stuff going on in Hong Kong. Lot ‘o stuff going on in Britain. So thanks for making time to check out the blog. And welcome to the reader in Papua New Guinea. I hope everything is peaceful and copacetic where you are.