Sheer Madness, and the Fallacies of the Talking Heads

Sheer Madness

Sheer Madness

The Washington Post has seen fit to print the following bullet point summary:

  • The White House said President Trump’s earlier suggestion that he regretted escalating the trade war with China was “misinterpreted” and that what he regrets is not raising tariffs higher.
  • Trump said North Korea has not violated any rules with recent missile tests, during meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Abe, who said the tests clearly violate U.N. Security Council resolutions.
  • Trump said it is “certainly possible” he will invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to next year’s Group of Seven meeting in the United States, a move that would almost certainly be opposed by allies.

I assume he reversed himself on trade because someone told the Very Stable Genius that his earlier remarks on regret for the trade war would make him look, to the Chinese, like a cowardly simpering idiot.

The Fallacies of the Talking Heads

Recently, a fair number of the talking heads are painting the picture of a polarized American electorate with a small number of people in the middle—who are, it is said, mainly concerned about the economy, and who will vote for Trump if the economy is good but who will vote against him if there is a recession, thereby swinging the election one way or the other.

I believe that is wrong. It would probably be true if Trump bore a closer resemblance to a normal Republican politician and a sane human being. But that is not who he is, and that is not the world we live in. I believe that just about everybody has made up their minds about Trump at this point. I believe the views of the 53-55 percent who hate Trump are baked in. I believe the 2020 election is down the tubes for The Donald.

When I say “I believe,” I am not attempting to “prove” a proposition merely by asserting it. Nor do I claim prophetic powers. I am, instead, stating a working hypothesis, for further empirical investigation.

But the near term state of the economy is vastly important, I believe, no so much for those alleged “swing voters,” but instead for the interests and views of the plutocrats who try to run our country, and generally succeed in doing so.

The plutocrats are by way of coming to this sickening realization. China is playing three-dimensional chess. Trump is just throwing shit against the walls. And the trade war is going to hit them where it really hurts, not in the fanny but in the portfolio.