Slip Sliding Away

Today’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is consistent with the picture painted by last week’s Fox News poll. Among the highlights:

  • 43 percent say they “approve” of Trump, but they are squishy: 29 percent “strongly approve” him, while the remaining 14 percent only “somewhat approve”—and all those numbers are a little worse for Trump this month than they were last month
  • 55 percent “disapprove” and they are not nearly as squishy as the “approvers”; of the 55 percent, about four fifths of them “strongly disapprove”—and, again, the numbers are a few points worse for Trump this month than last month
  • 29 percent of registered voters will “definitely vote” for Trump and another 11 percent will “probably vote” for him
  • “definite” and “probable” Trump voters add to 40 percent—very similar to the 39 percent Trump ceiling as shown in last week’s Fox poll
  • meanwhile, “definite” Democratic voters are at 41 percent, i.e., one point ahead of Trumps “definite” voters PLUS his “probable” voters
  • on top of the 41 percent “definite” Democratic voters, ANOTHER 11 percent say they will “probably vote for the Democratic candidate”
  • the Trump “definite” and “probable” voters (40 percent) plus the Democratic “definite” and “probable” voters (52 percent) add to 92 percent; of the remaining 8 percent, some say “it depends,” some say they plan to vote for a third party candidate, some say “a pox on both your houses,” and some are just “not sure”

Last but not least, please observe that in the new poll, as in the Fox poll, there are about three percent of us who are willing to tell a pollster that they “approve” of Trump, but who are not going to vote for him again unless the Democrats nominate Beelzebub.

This, friends and neighbors, is an anomaly. A lot of the pundits are trying to explain the anomaly by saying that these are folks who “approve” of Trump because they like the economy, and I am sure there is some truth in that. But I think a goodly number of them are thinking fetuses, thinking judges, thinking tax cuts, and thinking deregulation. But much as they like the fetuses, the judges, the tax cuts, and the deregulation, they have just had a belly full of Donald J. Trump and long to see his fat ass out from behind the Resolute Desk.

Whatever the best explanation may be, the bottom line is that a little slice of the Trump “approvers” just are not going to vote for him again.

And, like profit or loss, winning or losing elections is often the small difference between two large numbers.