Writing in the Washington Post, Aaron Blake sees 2 troubling signs for Trump in this new Fox News poll. The first of the two signs is the one I addressed in my post on Thursday: in Mr. Blake’s words, “roughly 4 percent of registered voters say they approve of Trump but they’re not ready to vote for him.”
This same four percent of registered voters told the Quinnipiac pollsters that they “would consider voting for Trump.” Apparently, what they meant was that they would consider voting for Trump if the Democrats nominate Beelzebub. But if, instead, the Democrats wind up picking any of their four current front runners, then it’s ixnay on the otevay for Rumptay.
The second problema for the Trumpster, which I didn’t discuss previously, is that, among people who say they don’t like Trump and they don’t like Biden, 43 percent would hold their noses and vote for Biden while only ten percent would hold their noses and vote for Trump.
Big switcheroo from 2016, when a whole lot of the people who didn’t like Clinton and didn’t like Trump decided to take a flyer on the Orange Man.
Mr. Blake sucks his thumb trying to explain the mystery in these numbers. I do not believe there is any particular mystery in it. When you are a miserable, rotten human being, that tends to dampen your popularity.
Now Before You Hop Up and Down …
… and accuse me of advocating complacency, let this be said. Yes, it’s a long way to the election. Yes, a lot could happen. And no, it is not God’s gospel truth that Trump’s absolute 2020 ceiling is 39 percent of the vote.
Even so, all the data currently available, taken together and interpreted with reason and common sense, point toward the conclusion that he’s circling the drain.