According to the latest news from an unimpeachable source,
- if it’s Trump versus Biden, Biden wins 50 percent to 38 percent,
- if it’s Trump versus the crazy socialist, Sanders wins 48 percent to 39 percent,
- if it’s Trump versus the loud mouthed woman of color, Harris wins 46 percent to 39 percent, and
- if it’s Trump versus Pocahontas, Warren wins 45 percent to 39 percent.
Please observe how remarkably stable Trump’s numbers are. At this point, the data are telling us that who we nominate makes some difference in how many of our people come out to vote for the Democratic candidate (as opposed to staying home or voting third party). But who we nominate seems to make almost no difference in how many people are actually planning to come out and vote for Trump. Sleepy Joe? The crazy socialist? Pocahontas? The shrill dark-skinned woman? A ham sandwich? Don’t make no nevermind. Whoever it is, just under 40 percent of the voters are prepared to hold their noses and pull the lever for Trump.
Furthermore, please observe how consistent these data are with the 54/32/12 percent split I discussed in a previous post. To elaborate: people who tell pollsters they “approve” of Trump are still around 43 percent. (In fact, according to fivethirtyeight.com this evening, it’s exactly 43.0 percent among “likely and registered voters.”) But, of this 43 percent, only 32 percent of all voters are hard core Trump voters. The rest of the “approvers” are squishy “approvers”—they are people who say they will “consider” voting for Trump.
Right now, considering the available Democratic options, and considering everything else they might think worthy of consideration, most of these squishy Trump voters will still support Trump, but a goodly minority of them are ready to get off the Trump train.
Lastly, please observe that, ever since the government shutdown brouhaha died down, the Trump “approval”/”disapproval” difference has been very, very stable among “likely and registered voters.” The difference has been around ten percent. Some days it’s, say, 9.8 percent.l Some days it’s 10.1 percent. But there is really very little difference over time.
As of tonight, its 10.3 percent.
As I said at the beginning, Fox News is trying to tell the Trumpster that he is in deep doodoo. Will he get the message? Will he take the steps that a sensible person in his position would take, in an effort to forestall disaster?
I don’t think so.
Praise the Lord.