Progressive Gut, Progressive Ratiocination

colorful brain

Holly Otterbein, Sanders and Warren voters have astonishingly little in common: His backers are younger, make less money, have fewer degrees and are less engaged in politics.

Sunzi said, “Know self, know enemy, hundred battles, hundred victories.”* And in a recent post I argued that we have a moral duty to do everything we can to understand American voters, and to base that understanding on objective facts, not unsupported or unthinking intuition.

From Ms. Otterbein’s piece:

The fact that Warren and Sanders’ bases don’t perfectly overlap hasn’t garnered much public attention, but it’s something very much on the minds of their aides and allies.

“It shows that the media does not base their perceptions on data that is publicly available,” said Ari Rabin-Havt, chief of staff to the Sanders campaign. “I think people develop overly simplistic views of politics that presume that people who live in the real world think the same way as elite media in D.C. and New York.”

It’s not a given that Sanders voters would flock to Warren, or vice versa, if one of them left the race and endorsed the other. In Morning Consult, Reuters-Ipsos and Washington Post-ABC News polls, more Sanders supporters name Biden as their second choice than Warren — and a higher percentage of Warren voters pick Kamala Harris as their No. 2 than Sanders, according to recent surveys.

* Well, actually, he said something more or less like the words I put in quotation marks; but my translation is close enough for folk music.