Emily Guskin, An early look at the 2020 class of swing voters
As you have probably discerned, this post continues my quest to learn what in the hell my fellow Mericans are up to.
I strongly suggest you read the above sources for yourself, rather than relying on anything I write. That said, I will share a few highlights and observations.
The number of voters who would vote for Trump if he ran against Jesus Christ stands at 40 percent.
The number of voters who would vote against Trump if the Democrats nominated a ham sandwich stands at 41 percent.
Almost equal, though, thanks be to the Lord Buddha, there are a few more of us than there are of them.
The number of voters who might or might not vote for Trump—depending, inter alia, on whom the Democrats nominate—stands at an astonishing 19 percent.
I literally do not understand these people. After the last few years, how the hellcould you not be sure whether you support Trump or not? I sort of understand the solid Trump supporters better than I understand the fence sitters. What are these people thinking?
Ms. Guskin tells us some interesting things about the fence sitters. For example, we learn that
There is not a significant difference between on-the-fence voters and total registered voters when it comes to education levels, household income, race and ethnicity, gender, age and religion. For example, a third of on-the-fence voters have college degrees (33 percent), similar to the 36 percent of registered voters who do; 64 percent of on-the-fence voters are white and along with 69 percent of voters overall.
But we don’t learn what makes one white non-college educated woman into a Democrat, what makes another one into a Trump supporter, and what makes a third one sit on the fence.
We do learn, however, that Biden runs ten points ahead of Trump, while Trump runs about even with Sanders, Warren, or Buttigieg. One is tempted to leap to the conclusion that these swing voters are afraid of “socialism” or don’t want to be “too far left.” And I’m sure that is part of it. But that doesn’t really explain why they lump in Buttigieg with Warren and Sanders. We really need some further understanding of this.