Ignoring the Polls?

WP poll

In a message addressed to my pseudonym, one of my best friends, alluding to this article—Biden holds a slight advantage over nearest 2020 rival, but Democrats are far from making a decision—asks an implied question: “I assume this is a time to ignore polls.”

For what it’s worth, the shot version of my answer is no.

The slightly longer version would be, polls provide relevant information, and it’s never a good idea just to ignore relevant information.

So what can we say?

We see a list of 11 people, only eight of whom are actually running for the Democratic nomination for President. Of the eight actual candidates, two of them, Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar, each have about 1 percent support.

There are 20 candidates in the race. The collective support accruing to the bottom twelve is now four percent, thus averaging one third of one percent each.

Of the 20 candidates, five achieve support at or above three percent.

O’Rourke

Beto O’Rourke is holding his three percent, but seems not to be going anywhere. All hat, no cattle.

Warren

She has managed to climb from two percent support to be tied for fourth place, with four percent. I like her style on stage and I like her ideas. But what kind of person who isn’t an Indian tells the bar association that they are an Indian? It’s just weird. And even if we are prepared to forgive and forget this trivial oddity,, I think we’re scared shitless that the Pocahontas label will stick.

Harris

She is tied for fourth, but has declined dramatically. Not lookin’ good.

Bittigieg

Out of nowheresville, into third place. Very impressive. Needs to tell us more about how he thinks he is going to win.

Sanders

Growing support, and a strong second place, but may well have a ceiling among Democratic primary voters. I thought he would have defeated Trump in 2016. I think he would defeat Trump in 2020.

Biden

“Front runner” at a whopping 13 percent.

Why Does it Currently Seem to be a Contest among Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg?

I think it’s because Democrats sense that these are the three folks best suited by personality, stage presence, and intestinal fortitude to stand up to Trump’s bullshit.

What Would it Take for Someone Else to Break Out?

See answer to the immediately preceding question.