Boonies, 46%; Small Towns, 33%; Suburbs, 27%; Cities, 24%


These would be the precentages of people who “definitely plan to vote to reelect President Trump” in 2020.

And here’s more revealing information, from the same poll.

Screen Shot 2018-12-03 at 1.35.05 PM

In each type of location, let’s compare the percentage of “definite Trump 2020 voters” to the “view Republican Party favorably” share. To make this easy:





Percentage Viewing Republican Party Favorably


Percentage Definitely Planning to Vote for Trump in 2020


Col. 2 Minus Col. 3: Percentage of the Population who Identify as Republican but may not Vote for Trump in 2020
Rural Areas 58 46 12
Small Towns 37 33 4
Suburbs 41 27 14
Cities 39 24 15

The people in column four are self-identified Republicans whose frontal lobes still show some signs of activity: perhaps they have not yet jumped off the Trump Train, but they are willing to tell a pollster that they are considering the move.

To look at these data in yet another way, let’s divide column 4 into column 2—e.g., 12 ÷ 58—to identify the percentages of self-identified Republicans who might be ready to get down out of the clown car:

Location Percent of Self-Identified Republicans Getting Tired of Trump’s Act
Rural Areas 21
Small Towns 11
Suburbs 34
Cities 38

You may tell me that it’s my confirmation bias that has led me to cite these data—specifically, that I’m looking for evidence to confirm my intuition that the Trump base is, collectively speaking, probably not quite as brain dead as one might suppose.

I admit to having that intuition.

I admit to being attuned to evidence that might support that intuition.

And, lo and behold, here is some evidence that does in fact support it.