The Big Picture

You will find the 2018 House Popular Vote Tracker here. It will repay scrutiny, but here is the big picture.

The total size of the 2018 electorate was 81.3 percent of the 2016 electorate. 58, 630,154 of 2018 House voters chose the Democratic candidate in their district; 50,116,124 voted for the Republican candidate; and 1,911.608 voted for an independent or a candidate of another party.

Expressed in percentage terms, Republican voters were 45.3 percent of all 2018 House voters, while Democrats were 53.0 percent of the electorate.

That works out to a 7.7 percent Democratic advantage. By contrast, Hillary Clinton won the 2016 popular vote in 2016 by 2.1 percent.

Subtracting 2.1 from 7.7, we see that Trump’s repellant idiocy has motivated 5.6 percent of the electorate to get off the clown car.

And since fewer than half of us are Republicans, a loss of 5.6 percent of the total means that some 10 or 11 percent of erstwhile Republicans have had as much fun as they can stand.

There is a metaphysical possibility that Trump might change his tune, and some of his peeps might come back. If you are a Republican who thinks that is going to happen, you can have some optimism about the future of your party.

While you are waiting for events to unfold, here is some suggested reading:

House of Trump