As Predictable as the Flowers That Bloom in the Spring

If you drive the non-cultists out of the Republican Party, then you have driven them out of the party, and they won’t vote for Republican candidates. This should not have been hard to figure out.

Ronald Brownstein, The Midterms Sent an Unmistakable Message to Republicans. Oh, and what, pray tell, might that message be? “So long as the GOP stays loyal to President Trump, its prospects on the electoral map will be sharply restricted.”

David Bahnsen, The GOP’s Orange County Problem. Writing in National Review, Bahnsen observes,

Orange County, Calif., is Ronald Reagan country. It has been reliably red for my entire life. The fact of demographic change has not hurt Republicans’ voter-registration advantage, which is still around ten percentage points in two red county districts that look set to send Democrats to Congress next year. The fact is that a significant number of center-Right, fiscally conservative, suburban, upper-middle-class voters have found the present message of the Republican party repugnant.

Well, no shit, Sherlock. Repel them, and they will be repelled.

Bahnson concludes, “[I]f center-Right suburbanites aren’t won back to the Party, Election Night 2020 will make the GOP’s midterm defeats seen painless by comparison.”

Jane Coaston, How Trump-skeptical Republicans swung the 2018 midterms:

If he wants to win in 2020, Trump will need to win again in suburban areas in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and win with Trump-skeptical Republicans. The GOP’s problem in 2018 wasn’t just that Democrats came out motivated and in bigger numbers than in 2014. Their problem was that a small percentage of Republicans who don’t like Trump didn’t stay home — instead, they showed up, and they voted for Democrats. …

Take Arizona, for example, where Democratic Senate candidate Kyrsten Sinema won 12 percent of Republican voters and 14 percent of those who consider themselves “conservative” … Sinema even won Maricopa County, the largest county in the United States to go for Trump in 2016 …

Or take Texas’s 32nd Congressional District, a suburban district outside of Dallas that FiveThirtyEight ranks as 9.8 percent more Republican than the country as a whole, a district in which the Republican incumbent, Rep. Pete Sessions, hadn’t faced a serious challenge to his House seat since 2004. But Sessions lost by nearly 20,000 votes to Democratic candidate Colin Allred, and while Sessions blamed his loss on “the liberal tide of people” who had moved to the region since 2010, that doesn’t bear out.

As NBC News’s Benjy Sarlin pointed out last week, the GOP’s losses in the suburbs in 2018 weren’t because the suburbs became flooded with Democrats, but because thousands of Republicans and independents who showed up to vote in record numbers …

Conservative commentator Erick Erickson agreed, writing on Tuesday that Republican voters didn’t magically become liberals. “These voters in Texas, Arizona, Georgia, etc. didn’t become socialists in the last two years. They haven’t changed. They think the GOP has. Heck, the GOP lost suburbs in Oklahoma because of these issues. For God’s sake, people, a Democrat picked up SC-1 by running against Trump and tariffs and for free trade.”

But the Dilemma Remains

The empty suits can’t win without the suburban voters, but they also can’t win without Trump’s base.

Nor can they finance their campaigns—or themselves—without the financial support of their plutocratic paymasters, who are not going to want to throw cash at a bunch of losers.

What to do?

In some cases, perhaps, change to a (D)?

In some cases, spend more time with your family, or maybe find a nice office on K Street.

But the fundamental problem ain’t goin’ away as long as the Trumpster’s fat butt is implanted in behind the Resolute desk.

I have no idea whether the empty suits will have the gumption and the cleverness to get Trump the hell out of the White House. My crystal ball is mighty cloudy.

But I know what will happen if they don’t.