The Fat Lady Warms Up

fat lady sings

On Morning Joe, Steve Kornacki—who is nobody’s fool when it comes to political numbers—discussed new polling showing that the Republicans have a head of steam in many of the Senate races.

By contrast, at 5:25 AM this morning, Political posted Poll: Kavanaugh confirmation energizes Democrats more than GOP:

Republicans are touting the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh as rocket fuel for the GOP grass roots in next month’s midterm elections, but it’s Democrats who appear more energized by the nomination fight, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

Kavanaugh’s confirmation is not popular: In the poll, which was conducted entirely after last week’s Senate vote, 46 percent of voters said the Senate “made the wrong decision” in approving the controversial judge, while 40 percent said it was right to elevate him to the high court.

And following the GOP-led effort to push through his nomination, enthusiasm among Democratic voters has surged. More than 3 in 4 Democrats (77 percent) say they are “very motivated” to turn out and vote in the midterms — more than the 68 percent of Republicans who say they’re “very motivated.”

Prior to Kavanaugh’s confirmation, some polls had showed an uptick in GOP interest in this year’s elections. And it’s possible the fight over his nomination may have more positive effects for Republicans in key red states in the battle for control of the Senate — like Indiana, Missouri, Montana and North Dakota — than nationally, where Kavanaugh is less popular.

And Here is Something Else That is Possible

As long as we are speaking of things that might possibly be true, it’s possible that some of those red state Republican women are telling the pollsters—with their husbands listening in—that they are going to vote Republican this November, when in fact they intend to do the opposite.

Inasmuch as my name is not Rosy Scenario, I make no predictions. But it is possible.