Trump’s Midas Touch



Let’s crunch a little more data.

From Politico this evening: Trump blows up GOP’s formula for winning House races: A POLITICO analysis of the vote breakdown in Ohio’s special election shows that the party’s suburban problem might be even deeper than feared.

The article provides cumulative, but interesting, information on the Trump political magic: splitting off suburban country club former Republicans from rural white folks. Please read the whole thing, if interested.

The table below is from the Politico article, and presents county by county data from the eight counties making up the twelfth congressional district of Ohio. The counties range from suburban and populous to rural and much less densely populated. Tiberi is the district’s former Republican congressmen—who, astonishingly, left office under his own steam, not under indictment and not in disgrace. (And good on you, ex-congressman Tiberi; you had the perspicacity to jump from the sinking ship at a good time.) Balderson, of course, is the Republican putative congressman-elect from the twelfth district.

I have added a column on the left, showing county population as of the 2010 census. It helps us to see how the Trump effect is working its magic. In the rural areas everything he touches turns to gold. In suburbia everything he touches turns to shit.

County Tiberi 2012 Tiberi 2016 Balderson 2018 2012-18 Party Shift
2010 Population
Franklin 58% 57% 35% -23 1,163,000
Delaware 71% 72% 54% -17    174,000
Licking 66% 71% 61% -4    166,000
Marion 71% 78% 68% -3      67,000
Morrow 69% 77% 71% +2      35,000
Richland 57% 64% 59% +3    124,000
Muskingum 58% 69% 67% +9      86,000
TOTAL 63% 67% 50% -13