To reiterate, yesterday the Republican “should” have won by 20 or 25 points. Instead she won by five.
And why is that? Martin Longman has interesting points to make.
Was the race so close because the Republican was a rotten candidate—someone like Roy Moore, for example? Nope, the Republican contestant was fine.
Well, maybe it was because there was a big turnout differential between Republicans and Democrats. No, wasn’t that, either.
Well, then, what is the answer to this perplexing mystery? According to Longman, who says he has looked at the numbers, it’s because lots of Republicans showed up—and voted for the Democratic candidate!
And why, pray tell, might THAT have happened?
Longman (1) doesn’t claim to know the answer, but (2) allows as how the data show Democrats shouldn’t give up on previous Trump voters. And that they should drill down on why so many Trump voters turned out for the Democrat. Maybe they will learn stuff they can apply in the fall elections. (To which Aardvark adds: inshallah.)
Plus (3) he thinks that the results are inconsistent with the claim that Trump voters are mainly motivated by concerns over white Christian status. Longman points out that the Democratic candidate was born in India, so if European ethnicity were a big issue, then the Democrat should have done a lot worse than she did.
I take Longman’s argument. But let me make this point—and I have said it before: Trump is turning out to be such a jerk that he gives white racism a bad name.
Trump is, in short, not a credit to his race.