The Smile on the Face of the Tiger

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In 2008, Saint John McCain, desperate to win by any means necessary, put Sarah Palin on the ticket. But her audience was unsatisfied by a token crazy person. In the fullness of time, they demanded an insane person at the top of the ticket.

After the Tea Party revolution of 2010, Paul Ryan made the best of a bad deal and welcomed them in, pretending that his agenda was their agenda.

When you decide to ride a tiger, you should not be surprised at the unfortunate result. When you see a crazy mob, and your reaction is to get in front of the mob and try to lead it, you should know that the mob will probably run over you and stomp you to death.

Exit Paul Ryan. And, Paul, don’t let the door hit you where the Good Lord split you.

Many talking heads have sunned their livers on the topic of Ryan’s exit. Yesterday, one of the more astute taking heads observed that the most immediate effect of Ryan’s retreat will be on donations from the Ritchie Riches who have been supporting Republican branded politicians. Paul Ryan, the talking head allowed, has been a prodigious fundraiser for Republican candidates for the House of Representatives. Ryan’s retreat sends a strong signal that a blue wave is coming, and that more donations to Republican House candidates are useless.

The talking head went on to predict that, now, the Ritchie Riches will probably switch the monetary support to Republican candidates for the Senate.

Good luck with that. As of right now, the Republican brand is doomed. See, for example, Five Americans explain the burst of enthusiasm for Democratic candidates and causes. Like the rest of us, including your humble scrivener, the thinking of these five representative voters is imperfect and their analysis is incomplete and imprecise. But, like the Oxford student who did not love Doctor Fell, this they know, and know full well: Donald Trump is bad news, and if they voted for him, they wholeheartedly regret it.

Others, of course, remain Trump supporters. Republican branded empty suits will find it pretty much impossible to win with them, because their craziness alienates the types of voters described in the preceding paragraph. On the other hand, Republican branded empty suits cannot win without them. Accordingly, they will not win. This is a corollary of a more general rule: if a thing cannot happen, then that thing will not happen.

Meanwhile, the choices for the Ritchie Riches come down to two: either try to buy enough Democratic branded politicians to advance your agenda, or start a new business-oriented party and call in the “Center Party” or the “Moderate Party”–or maybe, inspired by the Monty Python skit, they’ll call it the “Sensible Party.”

I have predicted a coming three-party system. I stand by that prognostication.

And, by the way, remember how I said it would be Dershowitz stepping up as Trump’s legal counsel? Lookin’ good. See Trump turns to Dershowitz as Mueller probe escalates.

My reasoning was Sherlockian: if Dershowiz is willing and even eager to represent Trump, and if no other marginally qualified lawyer is willing to represent Trump, then it’s going to be Dershowitz.