No Importará

Democratic senators, plus a few sentient Republican senators, gave up their shutdown in exchange for the promise of a Senate vote on DACA and the wall. Don’t worry, I have no intention of adding to the blather about who won and who lost that round. But suppose they get their vote, and an acceptable bill passes in the Senate. What then?

Jay Bookman, who is nobody’s fool, makes the case that

It won’t matter.

It won’t matter because the Republican caucus that controls the House of Representatives has no intention of welcoming 700,000 to 1 million Dreamers into full membership in the American family. That is antithetical to their perceived mission in Congress.

It won’t matter because House GOP leadership lacks the guts to withstand the accusations of “amnesty” and “traitor!” that would inevitably come from their hard-core, anti-immigrant, white-nationalist right.

It won’t matter because House Republicans know all too well that by their past actions and rhetoric, they have already guaranteed that the Dreamers will vote overwhelmingly Democratic, as will their children and eventual grandchildren.

It won’t matter because with the midterm elections just months away, and with the Democratic base angry and energized, Republicans will not dare to take a step that would anger and alienate much of their own base. Instead, their goal between now and November will be to inflame that base, and they know exactly how to do that. …

If Democrats want to help the Dreamers — and they do — they can’t do it by trying to twist the arms of Republicans who control every agency in the federal government. They’ll have to it do it by winning elections.

If Bookman is right, and he may well be, there will be no deal.

And then Trump will have to decide whether he wants to start deporting Dreamers. Or, more likely, just leave the question to his antediluvian staff.

Maria will go.

Our hearts will break.

And there will be hell to pay.